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The US Presidential Election

What does it all mean for investors?

Donald Trump as the Republican candidate for president makes the outcome of the 8 November US presidential election of greater significance than normal. Many would see Trump’s divisive and demeaning comments about certain groups of people, short fuse and erratic nature as rendering him as unqualified to be US president. This note looks at the main issues and implications for investment markets.

Key Points

  • The 8 November US Presidential election is looming as a significant event for investors (and the world) given the “policies” of Republican candidate Donald Trump.
  • The smoothest outcome for investors would be a Clinton victory but Republicans continuing to control the House of Representatives, ie, more of the same.
  • But the election outcome is now close. Some of Trump’s economic policies make sense and could be positive for the US economy and shares but this would rely on Congress checking his more radical policies (particularly on trade, immigration and foreign policy).
  • US election risk is consistent with our view the next few months are likely to remain volatile for investors, even though the broad trend in shares is likely to remain up.
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