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The US Presidential Election

October 6, 2016  |  #Government Policy

What does it all mean for investors?

Donald Trump as the Republican candidate for president makes the outcome of the 8 November US presidential election of greater significance than normal. Many have questioned his qualification as US president, but there are also many who support his ‘not the standard business’ approach. This note looks at the main issues and implications for investment markets.

Key Points

  • The 8 November US Presidential election is looming as a significant event for investors (and the world) given the “policies” of Republican candidate Donald Trump.
  • The smoothest outcome for investors would be a Clinton victory but Republicans continuing to control the House of Representatives, ie, more of the same.
  • But the election outcome is now close. Some of Trump’s economic policies make sense and could be positive for the US economy and shares but this would rely on Congress checking his more radical policies (particularly on trade, immigration and foreign policy).
  • US election risk is consistent with our view the next few months are likely to remain volatile for investors, even though the broad trend in shares is likely to remain up.
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