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Market Updates

The price of gold has now broken out to a record high and the Australian dollar has risen 30% from its coronavirus panic low in March and broken above $US0.70. What’s driving this and what does it mean for investors? This note looks at the main issues.
July 29th 2020
This economic and fiscal update is the first since December’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook when budget surpluses looked just around the corner. Since then things have changed dramatically due to the hit from coronavirus and necessary support measures from the Government.
July 24th 2020
The thought of various government support measures expiring in the months ahead, causing some sort of fiscal cliff over which economies and share markets will plunge, has caused much consternation. But as with the original fiscal cliff of December 31, 2012 in the US, it’s likely to be tapered into a fiscal slope.
July 20th 2020
The past financial year was poor for investors as coronavirus knocked economies into what is likely to be their biggest hit since the 1930s. Shares were hit hard, but the blow was softened by a strong rebound in the June quarter. This note reviews the last financial year and takes a look at the outlook.
July 9th 2020
Investor focus on the US election waned earlier this year after socialist Bernie Sanders dropped out of the Democratic primary race in favour of moderate Joe Biden. At the same time coronavirus became the main focus for markets.
June 30th 2020
The past week has seen a flurry of concerns about a “second wave” of coronavirus cases. It started when US infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci warned the coronavirus outbreak is not over and media started to focus on more than 20 US states seeing a rising trend in new cases, and then over the weekend, China reported a cluster of cases in Beijing around a market.
June 18th 2020
Back on 19th March when we first looked at the impact of the intensifying shutdown of the Australian economy on the housing market, we concluded that the impact would depend on how high unemployment rose. Subsequent government support measures along with an earlier reopening of the economy have reduced the risk of worse case scenarios for home prices.
June 2nd 2020
Australia has performed better than many countries in “controlling” coronavirus, it has a stronger economic policy response & its major trading partner is 2-3 mths ahead of the rest of the world into economic recovery.
May 7th 2020
This is an update of a note I wrote last November, but after the recent plunge in shares and the associated 10% or so loss in balanced growth superannuation funds through the March quarter, it’s particularly relevant now.
April 29th 2020