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Market Updates

Market outlook Q&A – disconnect to real economy, growth v value, vaccines, property, gold, inflation and other issues

Market outlook Q&A – disconnect to real economy, growth v value, vaccines, property, gold, inflation and other issues
In recently presenting a market outlook webinar we received lots of questions about the outlook but were unable to answer them all given time limitations. Here we try and cover the main questions investors have in a simple Q&A format.
September 9th 2020

Seven reasons why the trend in shares will likely remain up, albeit with bumps along the way

Seven reasons why the trend in shares will likely remain up, albeit with bumps along the way
Share markets have had a spectacular rebound from their March lows. The rebound has been led by the US share market which is up 52% and has just risen above its February record high, making it the fastest recovery after a 30% or more fall on record. Other share markets have lagged but are still well up from their lows. This includes the Australian share market which recently rose to its highest level since early March.
September 1st 2020

Three reasons why the Corona virus crisis might fix Australia’s housing affordability crisis

Three reasons why the Corona virus crisis might fix Australia’s housing affordability crisis
For years Australia has suffered from poor housing affordability. According to the 2020 Demographic Housing Affordability Survey, the multiple of median house prices to median annual incomes is 5.9 times in Australia compared to 3.9 times in Canada, 4.5 times in the UK & 3.6 times in the US. Consistent with this the ratio of house prices to incomes relative to its long-term average is at the high end of OECD countries.
August 12th 2020

US dollar breaking down, gold and the $A breaking up – what does it mean for investors?

US dollar breaking down, gold and the $A breaking up – what does it mean for investors?
The price of gold has now broken out to a record high and the Australian dollar has risen 30% from its coronavirus panic low in March and broken above $US0.70. What’s driving this and what does it mean for investors? This note looks at the main issues.
July 29th 2020

Australian economic and fiscal update – record budget deficits, but more to come

Australian economic and fiscal update – record budget deficits, but more to come
This economic and fiscal update is the first since December’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook when budget surpluses looked just around the corner. Since then things have changed dramatically due to the hit from coronavirus and necessary support measures from the Government.
July 24th 2020

The fiscal cliff is more likely to be a fiscal slope – and why concerns about Australia’s budget deficit are overblown

The fiscal cliff is more likely to be a fiscal slope – and why concerns about Australia’s budget deficit are overblown
The thought of various government support measures expiring in the months ahead, causing some sort of fiscal cliff over which economies and share markets will plunge, has caused much consternation. But as with the original fiscal cliff of December 31, 2012 in the US, it’s likely to be tapered into a fiscal slope.
July 20th 2020

2019-20 saw poor returns – but it could have been much worse

2019-20 saw poor returns – but it could have been much worse
The past financial year was poor for investors as coronavirus knocked economies into what is likely to be their biggest hit since the 1930s. Shares were hit hard, but the blow was softened by a strong rebound in the June quarter. This note reviews the last financial year and takes a look at the outlook.
July 9th 2020

The US presidential election – implications for investors

The US presidential election – implications for investors
Investor focus on the US election waned earlier this year after socialist Bernie Sanders dropped out of the Democratic primary race in favour of moderate Joe Biden. At the same time coronavirus became the main focus for markets.
June 30th 2020

How worried should investors be about a “second wave” of Coronavirus cases?

How worried should investors be about a “second wave” of Coronavirus cases?
The past week has seen a flurry of concerns about a “second wave” of coronavirus cases. It started when US infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci warned the coronavirus outbreak is not over and media started to focus on more than 20 US states seeing a rising trend in new cases, and then over the weekend, China reported a cluster of cases in Beijing around a market.
June 18th 2020